Tom Lee Pulls Back: Bitcoin $250K Target No Longer a Sure Thing

From Will to  Maybe : The Slow Backpedal

The crypto world is watching one of its most prominent bulls get a little less bullish. Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, has publicly cooled on his own $250,000 year-end Bitcoin price prediction, a call he had been championing since early 2024.

During a CNBC interview, Lee shifted his language significantly. Gone was the confident reiteration; in its place, a more cautious optimism.

I think it's still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high, Lee stated.

This marks the first time Lee has publicly walked back the $250,000 target, a figure that stood out as one of the most aggressive on Wall Street. Other crypto leaders, like Galaxy Digital's Mike Novogratz, had already expressed skepticism, suggesting "crazy stuff" would be needed for BTC to hit that level.

The 10-Day Rule: Why You Can't Look Away

So, why is there still hope with only 35 days left in the year? Lee, along with many other execs, pointed to a critical Bitcoin statistic: it makes almost all of its gains in just a handful of days.

This idea was famously highlighted by Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, who noted that missing Bitcoin's best 10 days means missing nearly all of its returns. The data is staggering:

1- In 2024, Bitcoin's 10 best days delivered a +52% return.

2- The other 355 days averaged a -15% return.

This pattern means the market can feel dead for months, only to explode in a matter of days. The implication? If you sell now, you risk missing the entire rally.

A Rocky Road to the End of the Year

Lee's tempered outlook isn't coming from nowhere. Bitcoin has been fighting strong headwinds since October, including a massive $19 billion market liquidation triggered by geopolitical trade announcements.

The asset only just reclaimed the $90,000 level after a worrying six-day streak below it. This is especially puzzling given that November is historically Bitcoin's strongest month. The current struggle has left investors wondering if the usual seasonal magic is gone.

Lee's Track Record: Prophet or Pundit?

Let's be real—if the $250K call fails, it won't be Lee's first miss.

1- The Miss: In 2018, he predicted Bitcoin would hit $125,000 by 2022. It finally got there in October 2025, three years late.

2- The Hits: But he's been right, too. In 2017, his base-case forecast of $20,000 by 2022 was achieved in December 2020. His bullish $55,000 scenario was also hit in March 2021.

The lesson? Even the experts are often early. Their long-term thesis can be right, but their timing is notoriously difficult.

The Bottom Line

Tom Lee isn't throwing in the towel; he's just adjusting his expectations. The dream of a $250,000 Bitcoin by New Year's Eve is on life support, but the prospect of a surge past $100,000 is very much alive. For investors, the message remains the same: in a market driven by a few critical days, the cost of not being in it could be far greater than the cost of staying in.

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